A simple question no one seems to be answering
We’re being told fraud is a major problem in the NDIS.
We’re also being told there’s been around $500 million invested in fraud and integrity.
So what has that investment actually found?
- How much proven fraud?
- What percentage of the scheme?
- What’s been recovered?
- Is it going up or down?
What’s actually happening with NDIS growth
NDIS growth has already dropped significantly:
- ~15%+ during rollout
- ~6.9% in the latest year
Where NDIS actually sits
- Aged care: ~9–10%
- Tax concessions: ~7.9%
- Defence: ~7–8%
- NDIS: ~6.9%
- Wages: ~4%
- CPI: ~3–4%
What people actually feel
Everyday costs tell a different story:
- Groceries → up
- Trades → up
- Install services → up
Often far beyond wage growth.
The uncomfortable gap
If fraud is widespread enough to justify tightening support across the scheme…
Where is the clear, proportional evidence?
Because every system has fraud:
- Tax
- Health
- Insurance
The question isn’t whether it exists.
The question is how much.
A signal we shouldn’t ignore
A high proportion of challenged decisions are changed or resolved in favour of participants.
Where this lands
- If the issue is fraud → target fraud
- If the response is broad tightening → that’s a different conversation
If decisions affect people’s lives, the standard of evidence must match the impact.
No one is defending dodgy behaviour.
But cutting real support based on an overstated narrative?